November 25, 2021
October 2021
Editorial
October 2021 - The end of October marks the start of the two-month run-up to Christmas, with some of the busiest shopping days – Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas in sight -. Demand for goods has skyrocketed out of control as consumers divert spending from services to physical products. From fake tan to sneakers – supply challenges have become mainstream – attributed mostly to Freight and Logistics, Component Material shortages and labor.
The Trump-China tariff drove many companies from China to Vietnam. Vietnam has tried to claim the crown of factory to the world, but low vaccination rates, coupled with limited controls has allowed the delta variant to spread, leading to fresh lockdowns. Vietnams’ migrant workforce has returned home, leaving the industrial towns empty! Mass vaccination initiatives have started, but too late to save Christmas. The Apple delivery lead time for iPhone 13 has extended from weeks to months; Bed Bath and Beyond sales are down 29% already. Panasonic plans to being production at a new plant in mid-October – unclear how this will be operated!
The Freight and Logistics industry is also being hit by labor shortages. – While warehouse shortages may be supplemented by Robots, Port labor is a real concern, with the backlog of ships into the US now mirroring that of Asia – with a lead time of 2-3 weeks to unload cargo. With Container shortages and price of oil having already caused significant disruptions this year - Walmart has taken the plunge and has contracted its own ships. With all elements of landed costs rising, measures like this may help with supply but are unlikely to help with corporate profits in the medium term. Asos and Boohoo – online retailers - have already issued profit warnings. Thailand sees an opportunity to become a global trade hub!
Semiconductor supply issues continue and are expected to stretch far into 2022. Vertical integration is now a consideration; - Hyundai announced plans to develop and manufacture chips in house to combat unreliable supply. Announcements from other car manufacturers are expected to follow. Plastic resins, Silicon, Lithium and Coal are all in the short supply, with China coal shortages, causing government mandated factory shutdowns and cost increases! Where and how will it all end? – Inflation in the US is set to sky-rocket, with some analysts suggesting the first action must be to remove the 25% Trump-China Tariff.
Elsewhere in the supply chain sustainability news; BCG says there is money to be made in shipping future fuels, especially with the shipping sector aiming to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. Amazon and Ikea are two of nine major companies committed to 100% zero-carbon shipping by 2040. General Motors and General Electric will co-develop rare earth materials for electric vehicle manufacturing. Research has shown that Africa would need a 2 trillion-dollar investment to implement green manufacturing.
Other miscellaneous news; Amazon India has been caught out by Reuters copying popular competitor products and rigging search results in favor of its own brand - accusations which Amazon strongly denies. Start-ups are rapidly becoming the lifeblood of India. Shein – another online Chinese clothing retailer - exemplifies a new style of Chinese multinational – building its success around an extremely efficient supply chain – much to the dismay of environmentalists. Finally, Lego has solidified its position as the world’s biggest toymaker.
Global Freight
Cowen and AFS Launch Index to Track Pricing within Air Freight and Surface Transportation Sector
- Cowen Inc - a financial services firm - and AFS - a supply chain consulting 3PL - announced the launch of Cowen/AFS Index, which will serve to provide Cowen’s clients with a prediction pricing mechanism for several sectors within the freight industry.
- As the freight industry is extremely volatile, having a predictive tool will benefit clients.
- Two major ports - Los Angeles and Long Beach - are operating at 60% to 70% capacity, a major operational disadvantage.
- The American supply chain has failed to adapt to the pressures of the pandemic.
- The root cause appears to be truck drivers - an understaffed profession - drivers often do not show up to scheduled dates blaming congested terminals - which consequently impacts an entire day of fulfilment, then creating an immense backlog of operations. This is impacting organizations like Nike, who are running out of certain sneaker designs and Costco, who are reimposing limits on paper towel purchases.
- Thailand plans to launch a national shipping company in 2022 to enhance its capabilities as a trade hub and become a greater player in global logistics with the opening of the Strait of Malacca bypass; as early as 2027.
- The Malacca bypass will avoid the world’s busiest and narrowest shipping route - the Strait of Malacca - cutting shipping time by 2 days.
- Currently, Thailand-based vessels contribute to less than 10% of global freight, earning approximately $1.7 billion USD - but spending far greater to acquire this.
- The Malacca bypass will significantly increase Thailand’s export revenue and solidify its role as a global logistics player.
- The dry bulk cargo ship: The Flying Buttress, has gone from carrying vital commodities to carrying dolls and action figures.
- Chartering vessels is a move made by Walmart to guarantee space on ships for transport and move products as possible, by by-passing log jammed ports; with its own separately operated bulk cargo dock.
- Other companies following Walmart’s example are, Target, Home Depot, Costco, and Dollar Tree.
- The container shortage occurred in conjunction with the pandemic, with lockdowns creating massive supply chain disruptions - creating delayed and rerouted freight.
- These wide scale disruptions created issues with returning containers in a timely fashion, creating transportation hiccups further down the line.
Global Fulfilment
Logistics Operators Raise Pay, Enlist Robots to Meet Holiday Demands
- Logistic providers are increasing pay, increasing flexibility to shifts, swamping social media with recruitment advertisements and adding robots to help workers to keep up with surging e-commerce order volumes.
- Ford will spend $11.4 Billion USD, over the next 4 years - constructing a truck plant and 3 battery factories - creating 11,000 jobs.
- This is in a bid to phase-out gasoline powered cars/trucks to combat climate change.
- Although, it is unclear how quickly consumers will embrace electric vehicles since they are more expensive than typical gasoline powered counterparts, hence supply may outweigh demand - according to Mike Ramsey, a Gartner analyst.
- Vietnam has grown to be the second-largest apparel and footwear supplier to the United States, after China.
- After, President Trump issued new tariffs on products from China there was a rapid shift to Vietnam based manufacturing, playing a key role in outfitting American consumers.
- Initially, Vietnam made it through the early stages of the pandemic relatively unscathed, but now the Delta variant is now rampaging through the country due to the low vaccinated population (15.4% partially vaccinated, 3.3% fully).
- This has led to many cities locking down - even if individuals are fully vaccinated, they are being restricted access to travelling between cities. Many factory staff have been impacted by this predicament.
- Factories are also operating at reduced capacity; Jason Chen, the founder of Singtex a garment factory, stated he was operating with 80 staff members when typically, full-capacity operations run with 350 people. Chen expects these issues to remain in place until November, and then will be faced with an immense backlog of orders.
- This is impacting brands like Nike, who stated they lost 10 weeks of production in Vietnam since July. Another brand - Everlane, who are 4-8 weeks behind schedule in production through various factories.
- In the run-up to Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Christmas; there are concerns that fulfilling orders may prove impossible.
- The ongoing global energy shortage is threatening to evolve into a full-blown crisis.
- China’s energy shortage has sent coal and natural gas costs soaring, and it has impacted the supply chains of Apple and Tesla, with product delays and growth forecasts declining.
- This dilemma has led to queries - with such an importance placed on the utilisation of renewable energy sources and deterring devastating climate change - why, in 2021 - is the world still so dependent on traditional fossil fuels.
- Warehouse workers are in high demand, retailers are scrambling to fill jobs with the busy holiday season approaching.
- Workers are put off by tough hours, poor conditions, and lack of career progression in the sector. Incentives like funding college tuition fees and sign-on bonuses are not enough to convince people - according to a Washington Post report.
Manufacturing
Taiwan PCB Firms Asked to Halt Production in China
- Taiwan PCB firms, with plants in Suzhou and Kunshan have been asked to suspend production from September 26-30, but this could extend into October.
- This is a result of government led power cuts.
- There is concern that these cessations of operation will reduce factory utilisation, and impact revenue growth - in a field that already struggling with meeting demand.
- Africa is striving to be net-zero emissions by 2050, this would require an investment of $2 trillion USD, and create almost 4 million jobs.
- Development of green manufacturing from the ground-up is cheaper than transitioning from fossil-fuel heavy industry to green manufacturing further down the line (decarbonisation).
- The scale of fossil-fuel use in Africa is still relatively small, currently requiring $600 million (of the $2 trillion) for decarbonisation. The concern is that this valuation will grow, as the fossil fuel industry grows.
- Before the pandemic began, masks made in the United States cost about 50 cents apiece, according to the president of a Medical Equipment Company based in Florida. During the pandemic, this fell to 15-25 cents as the cost of raw material fell and US producers became more efficient.
- However, in China, these same masks cost 4 cents to make.
- This had led many small American business, who initially answered ‘the call’ to make more masks, are going bust - as they are undercut but producers elsewhere.
- This is not a China problem; it is an American grown issue. U.S legislators failed to force states to source PPE domestically, due to a loophole in the American Recovery Plan.
- The administration also delayed plans to raise tariffs on Chinese medical goods until November because of lobbying from the American Hospital Association - creating a greater incentive to source PPE elsewhere.
- Although, even if tariffs were increased - the privatized health care system would place any increase in costs onto the patient anyway - creating an expensive cycle that needs to be reconstructed.
- General Motors has signed a memorandum of understanding with General Electric for the supply of rare earth materials, magnets, copper, and electrical steel used to manufacture electric vehicles and clean energy equipment.
- This collaboration will be focused on establishing the supply chain for manufacturing in North America and Europe.
- This agreement is a sign that North American automakers are keen to reduce their reliance on foreign countries for critical minerals.
- Jose Munoz - Hyundai’s global chief operating officer - stated the automaker wants to develop its own chips, to reduce reliance on chipmakers.
- Munoz suggests the “worst has passed” with the global chip shortage but recognises that Hyundai should have greater independence in case this circumstance was to arise again.
Procurement & Sourcing
Plastic Resin Emerges as Tiniest Example of Enduring COVID-19 Supply Chain Crunch
- There is a significant increase in demand for tiny plastic pellets, exacerbated by a tight supply and surging prices.
- Tiny plastic pellets are the raw ingredient that forms the framework of plastic goods - is emerging as the smallest example of how the pandemic is disrupting the supply chain globally.
- An ongoing shortage of a seemingly universal item is concerning, and unlikely to be resolved quickly…it will begin trickling into finished goods and contributing to overall inflation.
- Demand for electric vehicles has been rapidly increasing, but manufacturers are struggling to meet demand due to shortages of lithium for batteries.
- Sales have increased by 90% compared to 2020, which is equivalent to roughly six million vehicles.
- The cost for lithium has also increased, as per the increase in demand.
- The top EV markets are the US, EU, and China.
- China’s energy crisis has sent shipping cost surging as it snaps up coal to keep powering its economy through the winter.
- Vessels that haul coal are earning almost $75,000 a day - the most since 2009.
- A Chinese state newspaper stated the country’s power generators are prioritising procuring enough coal and are willing to pay whatever the costs.
- Marvell - a company that manufactures semiconductors - suggests the global shortage of the chips could extend into 2022, affecting cars, computers and even toothbrushes.
- There were some signs of semiconductor shortages prior to the pandemic, and the tightening of resources led to companies stockpiling and rethinking their supply chain structure to be more strategic.
- Other semiconductor companies, like AMD, suggest this long-haul shortage is an extremely pessimistic view, and is merely a result of peaks and troughs - as in all industries - as demand varies. Although 2022 will be tight, resources may not be as scarce as we are led to believe.
- Silicon metal - made from the second most abundance element on earth - has become scarce and has sent prices increasing by 300% in two months.
- Silicon makes up 28% of the earth’s crust (by weight), and is used in everything: computer chips, concrete, glass, car parts, and even is used in the process of converting sunlight into electricity with solar panels.
- Silicon is found in sand and clay in its crude form, which down the line may cause shortages for gravel.
- Additionally, silicon is often alloyed with aluminum, making it more pliable, which then is used to make engine blocks for automobiles and everyday appliances - creating noticeable shortages of products in everyday life.
- The fragility of silicon supply chain is being exposed to a high degree.
- China’s energy crisis is cascading through the world, from impacting companies like Toyota to Australian sheep farmers.
- The timing of this is extremely inconvenient, especially with the run-up to the holiday season.
- Economists warn of a slower growth in China, and according to a vulnerability index by Citigroup; exporters of manufactured goods and commodities are particularly at risk to a weakening Chinese economy (i.e. Taiwan, Korea, Australia, Chile, and Germany are exposed to different degrees).
Technology & Automation
A New Language for Digital Transformation
- In a survey conducted by Deloitte, 85% of CEOs significantly accelerated digital initiatives during the pandemic.
- Digital transformation should be guided by overall business strategy and not the technology itself.
- There are 5 main imperatives that can act as a framework for digital transformation: Experience - optimizing interactions with users. Insights - Assessing the data/analysis/operating model Platforms - The location and managing of information across a network Connectivity - Flow of information, and the broader ecosystem
- Berkshire Grey Inc. - a provider of AI enabled robotic solutions that automate processes in the supply chain - and the Atos Group - a technology services provider - announced a partnership to accelerate the automation of supply chain operations.
- This partnership aims to provide clients of various industries (e.g., retail, transportation, and logistics) with holistic solutions to meet their needs.
- There are 6.8 billion people with mobile phones, by the end of 2021.
- Logistics is a mobile industry; logistics is an industry in motion, by tracking information it can benefit all logistics users from planners to dispatch.
- Digitization can’t be realized without a mobile component; mobile phones enhance data aggregation and can be analyzed in a straight-forward manner, rendering traditional pen/paper method obsolete.
- Speed of business is accelerating; mobile logistics technology is agile and can work alongside the business to keep up with the pace.
- The new normal is contactless; a company can capture real-time data while simultaneously protecting their workforce from risk of exposure (which will also have other benefits as a result, i.e., good corporate social responsibility).
- Descartes Systems Group - a provider of on-demand software-as-a-service solutions - has a long history of developing innovative systems including robotic process automation for route planning processes to optimise same day deliveries and improve fleet performance for customers.
- McKinsey with the World Economic Forum, identified four significant shifts that emerged from the global supply chain disruption: Agility and customer centricity: Responding quickly and in a cost-efficient manner to issues arising in the supply chain.
- Speed and productivity: Hinging on a shift to digitization.
- Eco-Efficiency: Consumers favor sustainability, and it is an operational advantage.
- Supply Chain Resilience: Companies need the resilience of differentiated solutions.
- Among these four shifts, there is an underlying theme is focusing on digitization and automation.
- Large consumer packaged goods sites are seeing substantial return-on-investment, among several indicators (e.g., sustainability, productivity, speed to market etc.).
- Steps to transform CPG production networks Develop the network strategy and roadmap
- Design the scale-up vehicle and engine: keeping the ‘big picture’ of eventual network-wide implementation at the forefront of the design.
- Build at pilot sites
- Scale digital use cases fast across the network
- Develop and deploy a DnA academy.
Sales & Operations Planning
Rising Energy Prices Will Squeeze Company Profits, Says Business Consultant
- The rising costs on energy commodities (e.g., oil, natural gas, and coal) will increase business costs and reduce profit margins around the world according to the Richard Martin, the managing director of IMA Asia.
- These thin margins will be present in the fourth quarter or 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
- ASOS chief executive officer - Nick Beighton - has stepped down from his position due to severe supply chain stress.
- ASOS shares are currently down 12%, and there are concerns that consumer behaviours may cut 2022 profit by 40% compared to the year prior.
- Xu Yangtian founded Shein in 2008 - a privately held clothing retailer - with no tailoring experience but sought to focus on search engine optimisation, and he understood how to capture the attention of shoppers in a digital landscape.
- Xu states he brought a Chinese style of social commerce to Western fashionistas.
- The United States is Shein’s biggest market, followed closely by regions in Europe.
- Shein releases 6,000 new units every day (i.e., clothes in different sizes and colour-ways) - in contrast to Zara that launches 10,000 unique products a year. Shein’s total virtual wardrobe amasses a total of 600,000 items.
- Shein is thought to have mastered its supply chain with on-demand manufacturing, like Alibaba. Shein uses algorithms to determine what consumers are looking for, manufacturers items initially in small batches, and watches the real-time performance of each item. If an item is popular the company will quickly order more, but if they dislike it no more orders are placed. Its inventory turnover only 30 days, compared to an industry average of 150.
- Lululemon has outperformed the overall market for the last few years and is expected to continue its growth.
- Lululemon’s sales for the past 12 months has totalled $5.5 billion, which accounts for 3.2% of the global fitness clothing market.
- 86% of Lululemon’s sales come from North America and has even greater potential for expansion on an international scale.
- Reuters conducted a special investigation into Amazon India and found that, employees studied proprietary data about other brands and studied detailed information about customer returns on their site.
- The goal of this was to target specific goods as benchmark products and replicate them - as Amazon private brands or labels - to sell on their site.
- Amazon then further manipulates search results to favour their own products, although Russell Grandinetti - who currently runs Amazon’s international consumer business - strongly denies.
Company Focus
Boohoo Sales Soar but Shipping Costs Dent Profits
- Boohoo: a fast fashion retailer based in the United Kingdom, saw sales jump 20% to £976 million from February to August; compared to the same period a year prior.
- However, due to the pandemic, overall net-profit fell to £6 million/64%, due to an increase in shipping costs.
- Additionally, more money went towards paying duties then compared to 2020, which is attributed to an increase in custom checks.
- Boohoo is just one example of the overall clothing industry.
- U.S refiner; Philips 66 - said it would cut 30% of its greenhouse gas emission from its operations by 2030, because of pressure placed on the industry to combat climate change.
- Phillips 66 stated they support the Paris Agreement, and seeks to improve their energy efficiency, and promise to develop lower-carbon technologies.
- The refiner stated they will shift investments to focus on lower-carbon operations, including renewable energy, lithium-ion, carbon-capture, and hydrogen.
- BB&B sales have decreased by 26%, (from 2.06 billion USD to 1.99 billion USD) after a slowdown in store traffic after unrelenting supply chain challenges, this has led the company to reduce its forecast and experts say this is an ominous sign for the retail industry ahead of the holiday season.
- BB&B suggested the slowdown in store traffic were attributed to COVID concerns, especially in large states such as California, Florida, and Texas.
- Lego has shrugged off the disruption to its global supply chain from the pandemic to strengthen its position as the world’s largest toy maker. Lego’s CEO - Niels Christiansen - is confident it will meet all the demand in each of its markets in the run-up to the holiday period.
- Christiansen attributed the company’s success to improvements in Lego’s digital platform, which increased digital sales by 50% from the year prior.
- Additionally, Lego’s new themes such as Star Wars and Harry Potter have helped attract a broader customer base.
- Apple customers are facing longer-than-anticipated wait times due to new COVID lockdowns in Vietnam.
- The new camera feature on the iPhone 13 - sensor shift optical image stabilization (which has only previously been available on the iPhone 12 Pro Max) - its component parts are assembled in Vietnam
- Assemblers can produce the new iPhone, but inventories of the camera components are running low, and there is nothing to do but monitor the situation in Vietnam and wait for them to ramp up output. The situation is expected to improve around mid-October.
Country Focus
Vietnam’s Factory Crisis Worsens as Migrant Workers Flee
- There has been a mass exodus - over 2 million people - of factory employees in Vietnam, who have left the industrial cities in favor of their home villages.
- Companies are now in an extreme labor drought, and in the run-up to the Christmas season this is extremely nerve-wracking as orders may not be fulfilled.
- Vietnam plays a large role in the global consumer economy, especially after the United States hiked up tariffs in products from China.
- A report by Grant Thornton concluded there were one million job vacancies in the UK, half of which were in the food and drink sector - an industry which was extremely reliant on a workforce from the broader EU.
- Since, the start of the pandemic 1.3 million foreign-born workers had left the United Kingdom - placing huge pressure on organizations.
- This crisis has also highlighted issues with the just-in-time operations model, industry leaders have suggested that consumers may have to shift their expectations of shopping as this model perishes. One example of this may be more limited options provided for a product in a supermarket.
- Overall, Brexit and the Pandemic are both exacerbating issues from its counterpart.
- Startups are the growing force of India’s economy, with the finance ministers saying 28 unicorns - privately held startups valued over one billion dollars - were created in 2021, out of a grand total of 65 the last two decades.
- Some examples include Ola Cars: enables customers to shop for cars online, Hero Electric: focus on e-scooters and sold a total of 6500 units in September.
- After being on an extremely strict 3-month lockdown, Covid restrictions in Vietnam are starting to ease up.
- Japan based electronics maker - Panasonic - announced its new factory will begin production in the middle of October, in Binh Duong province (north of Ho Chi Min)
- Vietnam's GDP for the third quarter of 2021, is set to decline over 6% on year - according to Reuters.
- Marine fuel sales in Singapore - the world’s largest bunkering hub - fell to a 15-month low of 3.94 million tonnes in September, as the number of ships calling fell to a four-year low.
- Vessel arrivals at the Singapore hub fell to 3,098 - the lowest since February 2018.
- According to the Maritime and Port Authority in Singapore - in September, volumes were down 7% from the same time last year and 3% lower that August.
Covid-19
Supply Chain Woes from Covid and Energy, May Speak ‘70s-Style Inflation; Economist Stephen Roach Warns.
- Roach - a former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman - is warning that the U.S may be on track to experience a 1970s type inflation, with the impact of energy price spikes on China’s struggling supply chain will be the tip of the iceberg
- Roach explained that the supply chain issues have been ongoing for a year and a half, and afflicted many commodities, inputs, and energy. Suggesting we are one supply chain glitch away from stagflation (referring to the pressures that push prices higher during periods of slowing growth).
- The resurgence of the coronavirus alongside supply chain bottlenecks threaten to significantly reduce the global recovery momentum, with the overall growth rate remaining near 6% according to the IMF it its latest World Economic Outlook report.
- Global poverty, hunger, debt, and unemployment have been consistently increasing.
- Global supply chain hiccups caused by the pandemic has significantly slowed economic growth, but the problem should soon alleviate according to Jamie Dimon; the CEO of JPMorgan Chase.
- Dimon’s prediction is a unique one but is based on statistics showing consumers are spending 20% more now than before the pandemic and further suggests the economy is set up for growth over the next few years because of the strength of the consumer.
- The pandemic has wreaked havoc on the world’s traditional supply chains.
- The supply crunch is a consequence of a sudden surge in demand for goods, labour and energy as national economies emerge from the slowdown of the pandemic, say economists.
- Fresh coronavirus outbreaks in SEA have hurt factory activity across industries, threatening the region's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Coronavirus curbs have led companies to shut factories and reduce operations at a time when Asia's manufacturing sector is already grappling with rising raw material costs and signs of a slowing Chinese economy.
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