November 25, 2021
November 2021
Editorial
November 2021 – The global supply chain crisis continues to escalate. US government intervention has helped to reduce the backlog of ships waiting for offloads in Long Beach CA. The overall surge in demand for goods and inability to get those goods into the hands of consumers - due to lack of stock, labour, reduced freight capacity etc. – continues to take its toll on company performance.
Discrete activities have been undertaken to improve the supply chain crisis - Biden’s port policies, fining lingering ships, increased air cargo, designing foldable shipping containers, to the increase of chip manufacturing capacity. Apple has reported that the crisis has cost the company 6 billion dollars in sales, and Gap is reporting 4 billion in lost sales. Malcolm Wilson – CEO of the XPO spin-off GXO - has said “we have reached the peak of the supply chain crisis “, but DSV – expected to be confirmed as the world’s 3rd largest logistics provider (after K&N and DHL) - warns that further issues are expected going into CNY 2022.
The surge in demand for goods is still evident! Marks and Spencer reporting an increase in food sales that is more than seasonal. Alibaba surpassed its previous record for singles day, with a surge in festive-related shopping, Amazon too, continues to hire new warehouse staff to meet increasing demand, while trying to manage increased employee unrest – poor working conditions, low pay, masks, Covid risks etc.! The latter triggering increased conversation around automation, robots, and of course the ethicality of rendering “human-jobs” obsolete. McDonalds is also investigating automation.
The COP 26 summit in Glasgow, has re-invigorated the “sustainable” supply chain discussion. The U.N suggests that even though many countries have pledged to reduce fossil fuel emissions it is more likely that global emissions we will surpass the current agreed thresholds This will lead to devastating effects on the planet, with more extreme weather patterns , (droughts and floods) taking a toll on global food supply.
A somewhat fun fact circulating about COP 26, is that the "new” furniture donated by Ikea for use during the two-week summit is now sitting in an empty carpark in Scotland. The future plan is to donate the furniture to local housing projects; The 2nd hand goods market is increasing – The high street store – Selfridges – has multiple outlets selling 2nd hand good on its fashion floors. Elsewhere - India has plans to build a net-zero emission airport just outside Delhi and Apple is pushing to release its self-driving electric vehicle!
Finally, In other news - Peloton sales have significantly slumped as people begin returning to life as-usual, Facebook is rebranding as Meta to represent the metaverse; an effort to combine virtual and augmented reality technologies in a new online realm. Dyson is distancing itself from its Malaysian manufacturer ATA over poor labour conditions. The United States is boosting its vaccine manufacturing to provide doses to less-developed nations. Twitter has decided to focus its efforts on transforming its platform to challenge QVC and other online retail stores.
Global Freight
- According to the Singapore University of Social Sciences, carriers could save up to 57% in transportation costs by relying on foldable containers.
- As ports and rail yards are clogged up with standardised metal boxes - foldable accordion-style or collapsible-style containers are looking to be their new, more space and cost-efficient replacement.
- However, higher upfront costs and hesitancy to shift typical business practices have kept foldable containers to being mainstream.
- A catastrophic freight logjam in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are defying president Biden’s hope of restoring regular cargo movement.
- In an attempt to fix this, ports are planning to bill carriers $100 per day for each container that remains on the dock for more than three days and will increase in $100 increments for each additional day of delay.
- More than 30 million tons of cargo now rests idly aboard vessels on the outskirts of U.S ports - there are mounting concerns that this crowding will not ease until 2022.
- DHL expects global supply chain bottlenecks to ease by 2022 as the return of more frequent air travel adds cargo capacity - reducing delays at ports.
- Shipping rates are expected to decline as bottlenecks ease - but not to pre-covid rates anytime soon - it now costs $20,000 to import a 40-foot container from Asia to the U.S, compared to $2,000 two years prior.
- Normally the focus on port-delays is often very American-centered, it is important to recognize it is a global issue - from Singapore to Greece.
- At the beginning of November at the Singapore port, the backlog was 22% above normal, with 53 container ships anchored beyond the coast.
- This backlog in Singapore was due to an unusual surge in Covid-19 cases - the logistic ecosystem is extremely volatile and a slight hiccup somewhere in the supply chain can wreak havoc on the efficiency of the port as a whole.
- DSV - a freight forwarding company - has told its customers to plan early for Chinese New Year, as they are anticipating immense transport pressure during the holiday season.
- During this period, there is exceptional demand for the transport of goods in a market characterised by limited capacity - compounded further by power curbs and enhanced security inspections between provinces.
- Therefore, it is pivotal that companies take these added speed bumps into consideration when planning for the next few months.
Global Fulfilment
- Amazon’s global workforce increased by 75% during the pandemic, to keep up with the surging demand in orders.
- However, the e-commerce giant is still facing a shortage of workers - especially in the United States with the upcoming holiday season.
- To remain competitive, Amazon has increased wages to $18 per hour, with locations in some states offering up to an additional $3 per hour.
- The elf on a shelf is a popular Christmas toy, that parents use to monitor if their children are being naughty or nice in the run up to the holiday celebrations.
- The Lumistella Company - the business behind the toy - usually gives retailers the toy prior to Thanksgiving, since the toy loses relevancy soon after Christmas; it is a ticking clock.
- However, due to numerous lockdowns in China, delays in shipping, delays in port processing - it has been difficult to get the product into stores.
- Only 70% of inventory has made it into stores - a number that is immense concern to Lumistella - because the remaining 30% may be obsolete in a month.
- America’s warehouses are running out of space, these issues are further compounded by the lack of workers, truck drivers, and rail cars - making it difficult to move new products in or out.
- A supply chain professor at Colorado State University, suggest the system is not broken, but rather warehouses are just immensely overwhelmed at the surge in demand for goods.
- Shoppers have been spending at record levels, unleashing all the money saved by not travelling, or going out as frequently - online instead.
- Malcolm Wilson, the CEO of GXO suggested the global supply chain crisis has reached its peak and discusses a more optimistic outlook for the future.
- Although, industry officials do not expect the backlog to fully clear until 2023.
- Workers and activists in more than 20 countries are expected to protest on one of the world’s busiest shopping days, as part of a campaign led by a coalition of 70 trade unions and organization’s: including Greenpeace, Oxfam and Amazon Workers International.
- These protests arise from disgruntled employees, fed up with harsh working conditions (long hours, low pay, and complex performance review systems) and alleged union-busting tactics.
- The Make Amazon Pay campaign is also highlighting that Amazon may be dodging taxes.
- The movement is calling for Amazon to pay employees more fairly, as well as ‘pay back society’ with enhanced sustainability efforts.
Manufacturing
- Production at factories in the United States has rebounded far greater than anticipated in October, as the impact from Hurricane Ida faded and motor vehicle output picked up. However, manufacturing continues to be heavily constrained by shortages of raw materials and labor.
- Manufacturers are still dealing with the worldwide semiconductor shortage - however there might be an unexpected upside.
- Many U.S based manufacturers are pivoting from their original niche to producing semiconductors; this trend is signalling a potential renaissance for US chip manufacturing.
- John Neuffer, the CEO of the Semiconductor Industry Association - suggests this is a great turn for the United States as it will create a better-balance supply chain.
- Tesla is looking to expand its presence in Canada by locating a manufacturing facility in the City of Markham, Ontario.
- It was not clear what the focus of the factory will be, however, reporters were told it will produce manufacturing equipment for batteries.
- Siemens is investing 60 million euro in a new production site in Berlin that will be entirely powered by renewable energy.
- These items produced at this new production site - e.g., vacuum interrupters - are the core of the Siemens Energy Blue Portfolio, which includes climate neutral, low transmission products.
- Essentially, Vacuum interrupter manufacturing will help achieve climate neutrality.
- Samsung Electronics Co. plans to build a $17 billion semiconductor factory in Central Texas, in a bid to localize chip manufacturing in the United States.
- Samsung is the latest company seeking to produce chips in the United States, earlier this year Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. both announced plans to build semiconductor plants.
- Samsung expects to expand its chip production capacity - it is already 80% greater than 2017, and seeks to be tripled by 2026.
Procurement & Sourcing
- Detroit’s two biggest auto makers, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. are looking to get into the semiconductor business after a year of shortages that impacted their output.
- This comes after the pandemic highlighted pitfalls in global supply chain, and organisations reliance on external agencies to generate products.
- The Public Accounts Committee (PAC) criticizes the Ministry of Defence's procurement system for chronic mismanagement, delayed projects, and wastage of billions in taxpayers' money, highlighting failures in oversight, delayed projects, and insufficient management skills.
- Despite a significant allocation of funds aimed at modernizing the armed forces, the MoD's inefficiencies, lack of learning from past mistakes, and insufficient project management continue to plague major procurement initiatives, exemplified by the severely delayed and problematic Ajax armoured vehicle project
Technology & Automation
- Factories ordered 29,000 robots valued at $1.48 billion, 37% greater than the same period last year.
- This surpasses the previous peak in 2017.
- This rush to add robots is an attempt to keep up with surging demand for goods and a lack of workers.
- Apple plans to give customers the ability to fix their own devices, due to growing pressures from regulators and consumers to ease restrictions on product repair.
- This will only be applicable to the United States, namely iPhone 12 & 13 users but will soon expand to computers/laptops that use the M1 chip.
- Apple is accelerating its development of a self-driving electric car.
- It is referred to as ‘Project Titan’ and has endured many strategy changes and executive turnover since its fruition in 2014.
- McDonald’s announced it has entered a strategic partnership with IBM to develop AI, that will automate its drive-thru lanes in the United States.
- According to a prediction by the BBC, half of all work tasks are at risk of automation by 2025. Especially, with the trajectory of humans being walking biohazards and machines are immune to viruses and social distancing.
Sales & Operations
- Supply chain woes cost Apple Inc. $6 billion in sales during its fourth quarter, falling short of Wall Street’s Expectations.
- Apple’s CEO - Tim Cook - said the impact will be even worse during the upcoming holiday season.
- These disruptions were caused by pandemic-related manufacturing issues in South-East Asia, alongside chip shortages.
- The looming holiday season is facing disruption from the supply chain crisis, and consumers are turning to secondhand clothing to fill the gap.
- According to Tradesy - an online retailer for secondhand luxury goods - there has been an explosion in sales of small leather goods, accessories, scarves and other ‘giftable items’ compared to years prior.
- Tradesy follows a peer-to-peer business model, that facilitates the transaction between buyer and seller and does not take any inventory.
- According to Mercari - another secondhand retailer - American adults are expected to buy at least one second hand item this holiday season.
- Finance executives need to pay more attention to their supply chain - with increased demand, labour shortages, logistical issues, a global pandemic, natural disasters etc. - there is a need to mitigate financial risks.
- There are four main approaches that should be taken by CFO’s Digital first approach: straight-forward accessibility and transparency to access information in-real time and in detail.
- Establishing new supply chain models: finance must collaborate with procurement and supply chain leaders early on and participate in a vendor approval process - to minimize risk and limit exposure for unplanned costs.
- Surety of price and supply: assurance of supply is equally as importance as the insurance of price, contracts must be carefully constructed for opportunities to be optimized.
- Continued improvement and governance: there should be meaningful collaboration between groups in order to optimize resources across the organization and your supply chain.
- Transportation firms are experiencing an unprecedented profit boom - with trucking companies specifically - seeing freight volume and prices jump as imported goods arrive in the United States.
- Railroads, freight brokers and maritime shipping companies are all experiencing more than a 20% surge in imported goods.
- This surge of imported goods, however, is contributing to the severe bottlenecks at ports, making it difficult to deliver the goods in a timely manner.
- In the United Kingdom - sales in October rose by 0.8%, following no growth in September according to research conducted by the Office for National Statistics.
Company Focus
- Facebook is rebranding its company name to Meta, in reference to the metaverse - an effort to combine virtual and augmented reality technologies in a new online realm.
- This is coming on the heels of Facebook’s slew of PR hiccups in the last few months, including misinformation, content moderation failures, and revelations about the negative impact its platforms have on the mental health of youth - the rebranding could be an attempt to somewhat fix its reputation and turn a new leaf.
- Total gross merchandise volume reached 540.3 billion yuan (USD 84.5 billion), through the first 11 days of November - an increase of 8.5% a year prior.
- Although, these figures are a slowdown from the 26% jump from last year compared to 2019.
- Steve Rowe, the CEO of Marks and Specer, reported a surge in profit after Covid lockdowns due to pent up demand from consumers; propagated by its grocery division.
- Lorry driver shortages are posing challenges for Marks and Spencer, but the company believes they are in a good position to deal with it.
- Peloton’s latest earning report sent its shares plunging by a third, as sales of its once-trendy bicycles and treadmills (the latter which are now unavailable for purchase) have fallen 17%.
- As a result of global reopening’s, more people are returning to brick-and-mortar gyms, or buying from peloton rival’s (e.g., Equinox).
- Gap reported net sales of. $3.9 billion for the quarter ending on October 20th, flat from 2020 and 1% lower than 2019.
- The company said its brands were unable to meet demand propagated by the pandemic - due to factory closures and blocked ports, causing about $300 million in lost sales.
- Gap also spent $100 million in airfreight costs as a method of port diversification to maintain inventory.
Country Focus
- Japan’s - the world’s third-largest economy - economy shrunk faster than expected in the third quarter, as global supply chain disruptions hit export and business spending.
- However, experts believe Japan will rebound in the fourth quarter of 2021, as pandemic restrictions ease.
- DP World - a logistics company based in Dubai - is investing $1 Billion in Bangladesh's supply chain infrastructure; which includes rail networks, ports and container terminals.
- Initially, this agreement was made in 2019 between both governments, but was reiterated recently.
- Vietnamese supply chains - pivotal to the world’s cellphone and footwear industries - are struggling to recover from covid lockdowns, that shrank its economy at a record pace.
- Southern Vietnam - the industrial region - was allowed to reopen on October 1st, however it is struggling to regain momentum in production because of labor shortages, sealed borders, inconsistent rules, and high cost of testing - making it difficult to return to normalcy.
- Prime Minister Modi stated plans to build India’s first zero-emission international airport in the Jewar area of Uttar Pradesh state; this airport - when fully completed - will have the capacity to handle 70 million passengers annually
- During the COP26 summit, India pledges to cut emissions to net zero by 2070.
- Dyson cut ties with supplier ATA IMS following an audit of the Malaysian company’s labor practices.
- ATA was already being investigated by the United States over forced labor accusations.
- This termination is a significant blow for Malaysia, which has faced recurring criticism this year over mistreatment of migrant workers
Covid-19
- Fully vaccinated warehouse workers for Amazon will no longer have to wear a mask indoors, unless mandated by federal, state, or local law.
- Amazon also plans to stop offering Covid-19 testing, citing the wide availability of vaccines, and testing beyond Amazon.
- Amazon reached a settlement with California’s attorney general, over claims it hid covid-19 cases from its warehouse staff.
- Amazon has agreed to notify workers within one day of new cases, as well as provide the exact number of cases in the workplace.
- Amazon will also notify local health officials within 48 hours of new Covid cases and pay $500,000 to aid enforcement of California’s consumer protection laws.
- The Biden administration is planning to spend billions of dollars to implement vaccine manufacturing in the United States to produce at least a billion doses each year.
- The government will draw on companies that produce mRNA technology to boost vaccine availability - especially to less-developed nations.
- The Hong Kong government is in talks implement stricter travel restrictions for aircrew operating cargo flights. This comes after two cargo flight pilots tested positive for Covid-19 in the last few weeks.
- This conversation is to dismay of Cathay Pacific Airways who started this could reduce the number of available employees and disrupt the supply chain of goods entering and leaving the country.
- China’s extreme COVID zero policies appear to be hampering full recovery for the shipping industry and the supply chain crisis.
- China is prohibiting crew changes for foreign crew, and recently imposed a seven-week quarantine for returning Chinese seafarers - even vessels that changed crew elsewhere have to wait two weeks before they are allowed to dock in China.
- The impact of these harsh measures in China - a key hub for the shipping industry - is having knock on effects throughout the world.
Miscellaneous
- Ikea gifted 6,000 pieces of furniture to the UN climate change summit conference in Glasgow.
- After the conference, this furniture has been sitting in a desolate carpark, and officials believe it will remain here for months as the Glasgow city council navigates a plan to donate the item to local housing projects and charities.
- A UN report stated most of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers are still planning to increase production and will be burning more fuel by 2030 than what is consistent with climate pledges.
- This disconnect between pledge and production is referred to as the production gap, which is widest for coal.
- There is a global shortage of arabica coffee beans, threatening to push up prices at cafes and supermarkets.
- Arabica beans make up 60% of the world production, but supplies were decimated after weather destroyed crops.
- There is an alternative, cheaper variety of Robusta beans, but this variant is harsher - far more bitter and caffeinated.
- Twitter is implementing a livestream shopping experience to its platform, starting with Walmart on November 28th.
- The modern QVC style shopping experience integrates influencers into its marketing to create an entertaining shopping experience for the consumer.
- This style of shopping is something that has become very popular in China, with Gen Z consumers shifting away from traditional e-commerce retailers to shopping via social media.
- The cost of a traditional thanksgiving dinner has increased by 14% to an average of $53.31, or $6 per person - according to research conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation.
- The price of turkey itself has increased 24%, while the increase in the cost of the feast - without turkey - is only 6.6%.
- The supply chain disruptions earlier in the year contributed to fears of a potential turkey shortage, however, Butterball - a poultry company - stated they began preparing for the holiday a year prior to ensure adequate stock.
- Although, cranberry fans may have to be flexible and opt for fresh berries as opposed to their canned variant, due to inadequate supply of cans.
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