February 7, 2022
January 2022
Editorial
January - The news cycle this month has slumped slightly, with many recurring topics from the past few months - such as rising freight costs, quarantines hurting post-pandemic recovery, and other covid-related news.
There was a lot of discussion this month on rising cost of commodities - such as various chemicals, oil, nickel, copper, and lithium. The increase of the various of the latter metal costs are associated with increased demand for batteries in electric vehicles and semiconductors in smartphones, but the supply of these commodities is falling.
Automation was also a hot topic this month - Warehouse automation manufacturer Exotic has raised $335 million in funding. Uniqlo, Nike and Ikea are all investing in warehouse automation to speed up the fulfillment process while still enduring labor shortages. China is also looking to automate more factories to cope with its aging population and the consequent labor shortage. However, there are discussions that automation could exact a toll in inequality; with studies showing that algorithms and robots replacing tasks once completed by humans is responsible for 50%-70% of the economic disparities experienced by 1980 and 2016.
In manufacturing news this month, China’s manufacturing output reached its highest level in the beginning of January - however, the rapid growth is losing traction. Similarly, the U.S has also reached its highest level of manufacturing output since the pandemic. China and the U.S are both showing examples of post-pandemic recovery. In a parallel to all the manufacturing news this month, there is also a significant warehouse shortage both in the United States and in the United Kingdom.
Apple topped sales estimates in the United States, with iPhones being one of the top selling smartphones in Europe throughout 2021. BMW and Tesla are the top selling luxury cars in the United States in 2021. This comes after Tesla has recalled 54,000 cars this month because of issues with their self-driving function. In similar news, Chrysler also plans to have their catalogue of vehicles fully electric by 2028.
In sustainability news, DB Schenker and Lufthansa Cargo welcome Lenovo on their carbon-neutral flights. H&M is also trying to pave a more sustainable slow-fashion path, by adopting new practices within the organization such as resell, rental and subscription services. Smaller clothing brands are also looking to create a more transparent fashion industry with garment tags including information of the entire products supply chain. Additionally, a bill passed in New York is enforcing a more transparent supply chain - prohibiting unethically sourced clothing - retailers will have to disclose factory wages and working conditions.
In other miscellaneous news this month, the WHO finally sees the end of Covid-19 in sight - but soon after doubled down on this comment stating we should not get complacent. China’s covid zero policy is doing more harm than good - with hiccups associated with the Olympics, and recurring factory shutdowns. China has also recently resumed trade with North Korea - the first time since the start of the pandemic. Luxury brands are experiencing a sales boom but are trying to navigate the digital market while implementing the notion of scarcity. Spotify’s stock has dropped on the heels of its Joe Rogan podcast controversy. Indonesia has announced the shift of its capital from Jakarta to a province in Borneo, but its new name is causing some controversy. Finally, the French fry shortage that was mentioned last month appears to have expanded to more countries!
Global Freight
- The British International Freight Association is calling on the U.K government to investigate the state of competition within the global container shipping market - as freight costs continue to skyrocket.
- The main container carriers made more than $150 billion in 2021 - which is more than the last 20 years combined.
- The total airfreight through January to November in 2021 hit 1.76 million tons - compared to 1.84 million tons during the same period in 2019.
- Global air cargo growth slowed significantly in November as demand was skewed by supply chain disruptions - largely because pandemic restrictions left workers stuck in quarantine - consequently, causing labor shortages.
- IATA - representative of 290 airlines - called on governments to address supply chain pressures, including alleviating restrictions on aircrew.
- Lenovo - global hardware technology provider - will be flying 20 tons of chargeable weight from Shanghai to Frankfurt on a carbon neutral flight - covered by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) - in a bid to decarbonize their supply chain.
- SAF is produced out of renewable waste and residue materials - e.g., used cooking oil, this service is offered by DB Schenker in cooperation with Lufthansa Cargo.
- Rail freight between China and North Korea has resumed after the pandemic caused it to be disrupted in early 2020.
- An empty freight train arrived in Dandong, a Chinese city 160km from Pyongyang - the train returned to the North Korean city after being loaded with medical supplies and everyday necessities.
Global Fulfilment
- Uniqlo’s parent company - Fast Retailing - will bring an automated warehouse online in China by the end of August 2022, as part of a $865 million USD global investment into e-commerce.
- This automated warehouse was created in partnership with Japanese logistics consulting and engineering company Daifuku - this automation has reduced the required workforce at its Ariake warehouse in Tokyo by 90%.
- The pandemic created a boom in online shopping, with e-commerce sales increasing to nearly 16% of total U.S retailers’ receipts in mid-2020; the highest it has ever been.
- In response, U.S retailers have accelerated their investments in warehouses, the demand for such logistic centers outpaces offices and apartments for most of 2021.
- The UK is experiencing a shortage of supply of warehouse space after the surge in e-commerce post-pandemic.
- Nearly 51 million sq ft of distribution centers were acquired in 2021, a 3.6% increase from 2020.
- This demand will cause rental prices to increase, and with only 18.1 million sq ft of available industrial space left for firms - a record low supply - finding space may become increasingly difficult.
- French startup Exotec has raised $335 million in a new round of funding led by Goldman Sachs - reaching a valuation of $2 billion.
- Exotec sells a hardware and software, end-to-end solution to transform a warehouse into a partially automated logistics platform - replacing some human tasks.
- Amazon pulled the plug on its ‘ambassador’ program, which was implemented to paint a positive image of working in its warehouse.
- This program began in 2018, after a slew of critical social media posts created a negative connotation associated with working conditions at Amazon warehouses.
Manufacturing
- China’s factory output grew at its fastest rate in six months in early December (50.9 PMI) - driven by production hikes and easing price pressures.
- However, a weak job market and low business confidence added some uncertainty - there is a call to policymakers to focus on increasing employment rates and support small and midsize businesses.
- China’s manufacturing sector expanded at a slow rate in January - spurred by seasonal slowdown, covid lockdowns and a housing market drop.
- The purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to 50.1.
- Chinese factories often see a drop in activity in the end of January to beginning of February due to the Lunar New Year holidays.
- It has been a big year for vinyl sales, Adele’s album broke the single week vinyl sales record; previously held by Taylor Swift (with 750,000 units).
- However, there are not enough vinyl manufacturers in order to meet this newfound demand - worldwide production of vinyl’s annually is in the 150 million range; but backlog is in the range of 75-85 million.
- Until very recently, luxury brands steered away from digital markets - since the main premise behind luxury is exclusivity, while digital is about accessibility.
- Some examples of the digitization of luxury include - Tiffany & Co., first offered an engagement ring finder app, for customers to virtually try on rings before then came into store. Louis Vuitton also launched a collection on League of Legends for players to buy online, and could also collect in stores.
- There are three components to the successful digitization of luxury goods: rarity (e.g. NFT’s), exclusivity (e.g. limited run) and price; some consumers pay more for digital products than the physical counterparts - especially in the gaming world.
- The pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability for manufacturing in the United States - with a reliance of global supply chains led to shortages of a wide variety of items from PPE, semiconductors, to shipping containers.
- Now, companies are building factories to localize production, e.g., Intel and General Motors both plan on starting manufacturing in the United States - among a host of others.
Procurement & Sourcing
- The price of electric vehicles is set to rise in 2022, with the shortage of lithium, cobalt and nickel.
- The benchmark price of lithium carbonate ended 2021 at its highest level - 261,500 RMB (41,060 USD) per ton, this is five times higher than January 2021.
- The cathode - the most expensive part of the battery - also has cobalt - which is 70,208 USD per ton - and nickel - which is 20,045 USD per ton -.
- There is a booming demand for electric vehicles, SGX wants to tap into this and is looking to launch energy metals derivative contracts on raw materials needed in making batteries (e.g., cobalt and lithium).
- SGX wants to provide a pricing benchmark and tool for market participants to manage price risk exposures on energy metals.
- Proctor & Gamble is raising the prices of laundry and personal health care products due to the rising costs of chemicals and other raw materials.
- Raw material costs are up 44% across commodity classes, with costs of chemicals increasing the most.
- Nickel is used in the batteries of electric vehicles.
- The cost of Nickel has climbed to its highest level in a decade at 22,745 USD a tonne - stockpiles are rapidly reducing, and production of electric vehicles has increased.
- Similarly, other commodities like copper and oil are both rapidly increasing in cost.
Technology & Automation
- In China, the pace of replacing human tasks with robot automation across various industries has been rapidly increasing - to increase domestic manufacturing output.
- In 2015 China set a goal of making 260,000 robots per year by 2025 - but this goal was met four years early.
- Additionally, by 2025, China wants to build at least 500 smart-manufacturing factories - in order to alleviate China’s labour shortage cause by its aging population.
- However, experts suggest that China’s shrinking population in the future - may lead to a relative shrinkage in GDP per capita, and all industries may become sunset industries - rendering all the current manufacturing push obsolete.
- “Can’t Touch This” Innovation, e.g. contactless payments and Amazon Go Supermarkets.
- Quick-Response Codes, e.g. QR code coupons or QR verification codes/counterfeit prevention.
- 24/7 Cybersecurity, e.g. Companies focusing their security investments to promote faster-detecting technology - with the online shopping boom.
- Upstream Livestreaming, g. live, interactive, online sales promoted by celebrities and influencers - this is already extremely popular in China, but will start to gain traction in the rest of the world.
- Dark stores that enlighten paths - converting out of business stores into fulfillment centres to facilitate next-day delivery to remain competitive
- Virtual fitting rooms - this has existed in various forms since 2017 but has yet to take off.
- In-store robots - Aisle roaming assistant to customers.
- Ikea routed half its order fulfilment through its stores rather than customer distribution centres in 2021 - and plans to continue this practice in 2022, to improve sustainability and reduce lead times.
- In order to accommodate this shift, Ikea plans to launch 80 store fulfilment automation projects - with robotics and drones.
- As humans compete with machines - wages go down and jobs go down, but new categories of better work are created.
- The substitution of machines and algorithms for tasks that were performed by humans is responsible for 50%-70% of the economic disparities experienced by 1980 and 2016.
- Nike has deployed 1,000 robots to help process orders at its distribution centers - sorting and packing products.
- Nike refers to the robots as ‘cobots’, short for collaborative robots, have helped Nike triple its digital order capacity.
Technology & Automation
- In China, the pace of replacing human tasks with robot automation across various industries has been rapidly increasing - to increase domestic manufacturing output.
- In 2015 China set a goal of making 260,000 robots per year by 2025 - but this goal was met four years early.
- Additionally, by 2025, China wants to build at least 500 smart-manufacturing factories - in order to alleviate China’s labour shortage cause by its aging population.
- However, experts suggest that China’s shrinking population in the future - may lead to a relative shrinkage in GDP per capita, and all industries may become sunset industries - rendering all the current manufacturing push obsolete.
- “Can’t Touch This” Innovation, e.g. contactless payments and Amazon Go Supermarkets.
- Quick-Response Codes, e.g. QR code coupons or QR verification codes/counterfeit prevention.
- 24/7 Cybersecurity, e.g. Companies focusing their security investments to promote faster-detecting technology - with the online shopping boom.
- Upstream Livestreaming, g. live, interactive, online sales promoted by celebrities and influencers - this is already extremely popular in China, but will start to gain traction in the rest of the world.
- Dark stores that enlighten paths - converting out of business stores into fulfillment centres to facilitate next-day delivery to remain competitive
- Virtual fitting rooms - this has existed in various forms since 2017 but has yet to take off.
- In-store robots - Aisle roaming assistant to customers.
- Ikea routed half its order fulfilment through its stores rather than customer distribution centres in 2021 - and plans to continue this practice in 2022, to improve sustainability and reduce lead times.
- In order to accommodate this shift, Ikea plans to launch 80 store fulfilment automation projects - with robotics and drones.
- As humans compete with machines - wages go down and jobs go down, but new categories of better work are created.
- The substitution of machines and algorithms for tasks that were performed by humans is responsible for 50%-70% of the economic disparities experienced by 1980 and 2016.
- Nike has deployed 1,000 robots to help process orders at its distribution centers - sorting and packing products.
- Nike refers to the robots as ‘cobots’, short for collaborative robots, have helped Nike triple its digital order capacity.
Sales & Operations
- Apple reported record sales during the recent holiday quarter, withstanding the supply chain constraints from on and off lockdowns in China and Vietnam, and semiconductor chip shortages.
- Apple’s phone sales for the end of year 2021 was 72 billion USD, a 9% increase from the same period in 2020.
- Peloton recently stated that demand for its equipment has faced a significant reduction around the world due to increased prevalence of competitors, shoppers’ price sensitivity and largely; the reopening of gyms after pandemic lockdowns.
- Peloton overestimated how many consumers would buy their products; and now are left with thousands of bicycles and treadmills sitting in warehouses and cargo ships - it needs to reset inventory levels by halting production.
- Exxon Mobil reported a fourth-quarter profit of nearly $8.9 billion - its highest in seven years.
- This report came on the heels of Exxon’s shakeup to create $6 billion worth of cuts to its expenses, which began in 2021.
- BMW sold just under 337,000 units in 2021, with Tesla following close behind at 313,400.
- Lexus, Mercedes-Benz and Audi followed respectively.
- BMW has been the top selling luxury car brand for three years in a row, however, with Tesla expecting to grow more rapidly in the upcoming years with the electric vehicle push - it is expected to outpace BMW.
- Amazon had to pay higher wages and signing bonuses in order to attract workers during the ongoing labor shortage.
- Annual fees for U.S prime subscribers in 2018 was $119, 2014 was $99 and in 2010 $79.
- Although, Amazon has recently declined to discuss Prime’s pricing - shutting down any price hiking rumors.
Company Focus
- Apple started 2021 with the largest market share with 34% of the European smartphone market, but then was overtaken by Samsung going into February - and Samsung remained top player for the remainder of the year, until December when Apple reclaimed top position.
- By June and July, XiaoMi increased to similar levels to Samsung at just under 30%.
- Oppo and Realme remained constant throughout 2021, at 5% and 2% respectively.
- H&M is trying to balance profitability and sustainability and would like to embrace new clothing ventures including resale, subscription, and rental services.
- The sustainability movement is being pursued by many popular retailers like Uniqlo and Zara.
- In Chrysler’s push to boost sales, they are shifting from gasoline powered vehicles to electric vehicles.
- Chrysler will offer its first EV by 2025 and will become all electric by 2028.
- Tesla is recalling 54,000 vehicles with self-driving software - that was allowing vehicles to conduct rolling stops as opposed to full stops.
- Elon Musk, suggests there were no inherent safety issues with the car since it slowed down to 2mph and continued if there were no cars or pedestrians - however, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration countered this saying these vehicles violate federal law.
- On the heels of the Joe Rogan Experience podcast controversy, Spotify reported a lower subscriber count than Wall Street’s expectations and an 18% stock drop.
- Although, in the fourth quarter of 2021 - Spotify’s revenue exceeded expectations and recorded 16% increase in paid subscribers - therefore, this slight slump may not be too concerning.
Country Focus
- Indonesia is moving its capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan Province on Borneo - closer to the geographic center of its archipelago, and there is a plan to name this region Nusantara, meaning ‘the whole of Indonesia’.
- There is some pushback regarding this name, as there is concern Nusantara - the capital - could be confused with the whole nation, i.e. the literal translation of the word.
- This push is in part due to climate change - whereby Jakarta is essentially sinking, but also due to the immense economic disparity throughout Indonesia.
- China’s covid-zero policy will impact global supply chain recovery - as any disruption in the nation will create ripple effects across the world.
- The WHO suggested Europe will experience a “long period of tranquility”, and even “enduring peace” in its war against the coronavirus.
- Many nations in Europe are removing their restrictions on travel requirements, vaccine passports and face masks.
- New York has introduced a bill that aims to make apparel manufacturers and retailers disclose detailed information on social and environmental practices.
- Leaders of Bangladesh’s apparel industry stated that although the requirements of the bill are not difficult to comply with -the cost of their businesses would go up, and would need to be compensated by equivalent prices.
- Cypto ATMs allow individuals to trade digital tokens (e.g. Bitcoin/Ethereum) with government issued currencies (e.g. SGD/USD).
- Daenerys & Co, the biggest crypto ATM operator in Singapore has shut down all of its ATM’s to comply with newly implemented government regulation that has prohibited them; by misleading the public to trade on impulse.
- Daenerys & Co has applied to the monetary authority of Singapore, and applied for a license to offer digital token services.
COVID-19
- Rapid coronavirus test kits are still very inaccessible throughout the world - however, employees at Google, JPMorgan, Delta Airlines, Mastercard, and Microsoft - just to name a few; can request tests be sent to their homes for free.
- Similarly, athletes in the NBA or NFL are provided with free frequent testing.
- Meanwhile, regular citizens cannot find any stock of test kits at their local pharmacy or if they do, there is a significant markup on prices.
- China detected 37 new cases of covid-19 on the 31st of January, in addition to the 34 found the day prior - putting a strain on China’s covid zero policy, especially since the Olympics have yet to even commence.
- Event planners are implementing a closed loop bubble for participants and staff - separating them from the public.
- Compal Electronics - a supplier to both Dell and Amazon has halted production at one of its factories in Taiwan, after several employees tested positive for covid-19 - following the nations’ covid-zero policy.
- The WHO warned that the Omicron variant does not signal the end of the pandemic, and suggests the global conditions are actually ideal conditions for more variants to emerge.
- The pandemic has highlighted the immense economic disparity the world is facing - many people lost their jobs and were pushed into poverty, while the world’s 10 richest men saw their collective wealth more than double: increasing $1.3 billion a day.
- The top 10 billionaires include, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerbeg, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet - just to name a few.
Miscellaneous
- Sustainability was one of the biggest fashion trends of 2021, this includes the materials of the clothing item and an ethical and transparent supply chain.
- This transparency was demonstrated by Sheep Inc, a knitwear label in London - included an NFC tag on their clothing hems - that allows customers to track the supply chain of its wool sweaters via an app.
- Nisolo, a footwear brand in Nashville, placed ‘sustainability facts’ inspired by nutritional information on food packaging.
- Although there is an expectation that all clothing transparency labels will be created equal because there is no regulatory body to enforce it - any traceability identifier would be a step in the right direction for the clothing industry.
- LVMH is the world's largest luxury goods conglomerate has seen soaring demands for clothing handbags and jewelry continuing into 2022, with the United States as its best-performing single country.
- LVMH recently acquired Tiffany and Co., which accounted for a large portion of sales.
- Shell is rerouting oil supplies to other depots, after a cyberattack on the 29th of January on two subsidiaries of German logistics firm Marquard & Bahls,
- The motive for the attack remains unclear.
- McDonalds and KFC outlets across the globe have been experiencing a potato shortage.
- In January, in Indonesia and Malaysia, McDonald’s customers could only buy small and medium sized French fries. Similarly, in Taiwan, hash browns were pulled from the menu.
- In Kenya, French fries were completely taken off the menu at KFC.
- Although there is not a global potato shortage, weather disasters are causing hiccups in transportation - leading to delays in orders.
Sources
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