December 31, 2021
December 2021
Editorial
December 2021 - The year ends with some familiar trends - global supply chain disruptions, continued chip shortages, companies adapting to an ever changing global environment ; and some new ones – emergence of a new covid variant – Omicron, various corporate commitments to changing the course of climate change, and other miscellaneous topics.
On a positive note, despite the predicted shortages , Champagne sales have boomed as celebrations hit a more optimistic note in comparison to last year. Candy canes, Maple syrup, board games, potatoes, and hot sauce are all in short supply! Boxing day sales hit record numbers. However, experts predict a record number of gift returns too - with more people shopping online. Apple’s top engineers are to receive a generous gift this holiday season - a large bonus - not to celebrate Christmas but rather to ensure they do not get recruited by Meta.
The new Omicron variant continues to run rampant - with many countries rapidly trying to roll out booster programs to prevent greater turmoil. Singapore, anticipates a new Omicron wave of infections, but is sticking to its “Endemic” approach with extensive tracking, testing, and notifications. In contrast China’s “Zero Covid Policy” ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics has led to lockdowns in manufacturing hubs, and reduced freight capacity out of Hong Kong.- increasing the strain on global supply chains. The surge in Omicron cases in both the UK and USA has resulted in test kit shortages.
To cope with continued supply chain disruptions, various industries focus internally . Approaches can be loosely categorised as follows;- greener innovations, smarter technologies, and increased output with less reliance on labor. Green technologies: new push for greater freight transportation via rail; DSV is launching a service to help companies track and reduce transport related emissions, Alibaba promises to be carbon neutral by 2030 and the Egyptian government, Volkswagen, and General Motors take independent strides for wide-scale development and adoption of electric vehicles.
Developing smart technologies: Aurora has partnered with Uber to develop self-driving trucks; DHL is also planning to do the same. Amazon and Tyson Foods have provided insights in robotic development programs to run warehouses and factories respectively. Farfetch, Ryder, and Deliverr are also focused on further development of their E-fulfilment platforms, expecting continued growth in the E-commerce sector.
Manufacturing activity; the United States and Singapore have increased manufacturing output over the last few years. India plans to diversify its manufacturing sector with a focus on technology development ; Intel is investing nearly $10 billion in a factory in Malaysia to further diversify its manufacturing footprint. Lego – the world’s largest toy maker - is continuing with its plan to invest one billion dollars in a Vietnam factory.
Other notable topics this month include, Visa launches a cryptocurrency consultancy service, Adidas sells their first NFT for 23 million dollars and an NFT market emerges in Singapore. Singapore Hawker centers are being pushed to adopt digital payment methods as part of the “Endemic” living with Covid approach. McDonald’s in Japan is only selling ‘small’ sized fries - due to a potato shortage, caused by floods in Canada. Bangladesh is outpacing China and Vietnam in apparel export growth. The United Arab Emirates plans to audit their gold refineries in 2022 to ensure all gold is ethically sourced. Toyota is also in the news this month – migrating from key fobs to introducing a mobile app and halting production in multiple factories due to component shortages.
Global Freight
- A significant increase in shipping costs and supply chain disruptions are taking a toll on China’s small commodity exporters and are anticipating more challenges to come in the new year.
- The surge in freight rates is a result of a discrepancy between soaring demand and reduced supply capacity paired with labor shortages and coronavirus restrictions in various countries - impacting the overall flow of goods through the supply chain ecosystem.
- France is banning UK tourists; this has led to a rush of passengers to France before the ban is enacted.
- Consequently, this has impacted truckers - who are exempt from the travel restrictions - entering France, and face longer wait times through the Eurotunnel.
- Although it is anticipated that these delays specifically will not cause too significant of supply chain disruptions; it is an example of how instantaneous travel restrictions have ripple-on effects throughout transportation services.
- The recent disruptions to the supply chains as a result of the pandemic has brought renewed attention to rail freight; viewed as a more resilient mode of transport.
- Rail freight has the potential to reach climate neutrality utilising six times less energy than road transportation, without the need to build additional infrastructure.
- Danish freight forwarding company DSV is launching a service that allows customs to track their supply chain emissions and determine the potential for cuts.
- According to OECD’s International Transport Forum, The global freight industry is on track to see its level of greenhouse gas emissions increase by 1/5 2050, as demand for the transportation of goods doubles over the next three decades.
- DSV anticipates the main challenge will be bringing down road emissions - comprising of 65% of overall freight emissions. There is potential for electric trucks to cover shorter distances, or trucks powered by hydrogen for longer distances.
- Amazon has been quietly chartering private cargo ships, containers, and leasing planes to take control of its supply chain - as they now ship 72% of its own packages, up from 47% in 2019.
- Currently, there is a waiting time of 45 days to come into the Los Angeles port, Amazon in contrast shipped to a quieter port in Washington - waited two days - and trucked the goods up to Los Angeles.
- Other companies that have been doing this include Walmart, Costco, Home Depot, Ikea and Target.
Global Fulfilment
- Deliverr - founded in 2017 - is an e-commerce fulfillment and technology startup, that aims to expand next-day fulfillment efforts for e-commerce merchants with its recent funding rounds.
- Deliverr’s clients include merchants on Walmart, Amazon, Shopify, Target and E-Bay, and uses predictive analytics to forecast consumer demand and position its items across 80 warehouses in the United States to achieve next day delivery.
- BFI4, outside Seattle, is Amazon’s flagship fulfillment center that spans the size of roughly 15 football fields.
- There are thousands of blue robots transporting goods across the warehouse, which are then unloaded by humans donning a yellow color emblem
- Warehouse automation has made it possible for supervisors to manage dozens of employees.
- Farfetch - an London-based online luxury retailer - has announced a new joint venture with UK-based logistics giant Clipper Logistics, solely dedicated to the luxury industry.
- Clipper has worked with companies like ASOS, River Island and JD Sports.
- The goal is to combine Clipper’s expertise in end-to-end logistics and technical solutions alongside Far Fetch’s carrier and duty management systems, with their knowledge the luxury industry the venture could cater specific niche of luxury businesses.
- Miami-based logistics and transportation provider Ryder System Inc. is expanding its e-commerce fulfilment network in the United States, acquiring logistics service provider Whiplash.
- According to Ryder’s president of global supply chain solutions - Steve Sensing - he has seen e-commerce sales continually hit record levels and omnichannel retailing become mainstream; causing an uptick in brands seeking dynamic fulfilment services.
- Earlier this year, Amazon showed off several new warehouse robots; named after Sesame Street characters (e.g. Bert, Ernie, Scooter and Kermit).
- However, Amazon’s rush to automation does not equate to robots solving the worker shortage…since robots do not appear to be able to pick up products stored on shelves.
- Machines only automate work that require limited intelligence, like avoiding obstacles or lifting heavy totes from a limited number of shelves.
Manufacturing
- Intel Corp will invest nearly 10 billion SGD to expand its manufacturing capabilities in advanced semiconductor packaging technology Penang, Malaysia.
- This addition Intel’s operations will position Malaysia as one of the key hubs for manufacturing and shared services.
- Production at U.S factories has increased to its highest level in three years, this overall output has provided a powerful boost to the economy as 2021 comes to an end.
- Manufacturing accounts for 12% of the U.S economy, is supported by the strong demand for goods after global lockdowns from the pandemic alleviated in 2021.
- India approved incentives worth 760 billion rupees to boost local manufacturing of semiconductors and display panels as the country competes with China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam to be a global player in development of electronic goods.
- According to India Cellular and Electronic Association, in 2019, electronics made just under 5% of India’s manufacturing exports, compared with 33% in China, 44% in Vietnam.
- Manufacturing activity in Singapore has consistently increased for the last 17 months, but the rate of growth has slowed.
- Analysts suggest this may be spurred by weariness of the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron.
- The panic of the new variant could lead to a new round of lockdowns - that would wreak havoc on global supply chains.
- Egypt is joining the push in the Middle East to adopt electric vehicles.
- The Egyptian government is in contact with several companies, seeking out a partner for El nasr Automotive Manufacturing Co., that is set to begin production in vehicles by 2023.
- The government at anticipates the cars to sell for $20,000 with half of potential buyers likely being taxi or Uber drivers.
Procurement & Sourcing
- Producers of battery metals and specialist chemicals for electric cars are outpacing sectors leaders like Tesla in the stock market, as prices of key commodities soar due to lack of supply contrasted by a greater demand of zero-emission vehicles.
- Materials in question include, lithium, copper, rare earth metals.
- Gold refineries across the United Arab Emirates will be required to carry out audits to prove the material is responsibly sourced, starting February 2022, according to a statement made by the country’s economy ministry.
- This comes after accusations have been made against the UAE that it allows smuggled gold from conflict zones be brought into the country - claims the UAE government has consistently refuted.
- Volkswagen is keen to close the gap between itself and its rival Tesla by pushing for an electric vehicle strategy, beginning with a $34 billion plan to build battery plants and procure materials for its vehicles.
- The venture will be in partnership with Belgian chemical and recycling company Umicore.
- General Motors stated it has signed a non-binding agreement to create a joint venture with Posco Chemical, a South Korean chemical company.
- GM is eager to create a North American plant to produce critical battery materials - insourcing their supply chains to reduce risk of disruption.
- Candy makers - similar to retailers and farmers - have been hit with high commodity prices, labor shortages and transportation hiccups; and are unable to keep up with demand.
- Hammond’s Candy is the largest wholesale supplier of American-made candy canes and is unable to take new orders from customers for the holiday season.
- Another candy cane manufacturer, Doscher’s Candy Co. who manufacture for Sam’s Club could only meet 70% of orders.
- These difficulties are rooted in problems with the sugar crop - with top producers in Brazil and Thailand yielding smaller than expected crops. As a result, some manufacturers are looking for sugar substitutes - like erythritol - made from corn.
Technology & Automation
- TuSimple is the first autonomous driving technology company to list shares in the United States, it is working in collaboration with DHL to integrate robotic semi-trucks into the global shipping giants’ operations.
- TuSimple has reservations for 6,875 trucks, 100 of which for DHL with an estimated delivery date by 2024.
- These trucks operate at a maximum speed of 68 mph, and contribute to 13% reduction in fuel consumption when compared to typical trucks with drivers over a similar distance.
- Aurora Innovation recently launched a pilot program with the freight sector of Uber Technologies to transport goods between Dallas and Houston with autonomous technology.
- Truck drivers are not allowed to drive more than 11 hours per day, and with drivers in short supply - this could provide support to the overall supply chain.
- If all goes to plan, the official launch date for the trucks is 2023.
- The term “Citizen Developer” will take on a new importance going into 2022 as non-technical developers come to the forefront of digital transformation.
- As a result of the pandemic, technological developments have been rapidly evolving, at a speed unseen since the digital revolution.
- According to a recent survey, 40% of employers increased their investment in automation in 2021.
- These non-technical employees use no-code and/or low-code platforms to create simple automations for themselves, their teams, and their departments - essentially, creating robot assistants.
- Organisations will have to consider investing in education and training in automation, a survey of employees in the United Kingdom said 73% of workers said they would be willing to continue working at a company that provided them opportunities to learn or enhance skills.
- There has been a recent uptick in Bot-a-Thons in companies, to encourage employees to create their own robots.
- Over 60% of most finance processes are now automated, businesses are adapting to digital innovations that have been produced over the last decade.
- Although, with these advances it is difficult to convince businesses lagging behind to change the traditional systems they have been used to, while still hiring quality talent.
- Tucker Marshall - chief financial officer at J.M. Smucker - states two predictions on the state of automation of the finance sector for the next 10 years; the possibility of a continuous financial close and for AI to forecast the future of business beyond a fiscal year.
- Tyson Foods plans to spend $1.3 billion to increase automation in meat plants over the next three years, propagated by the U.S labor shortage amid booming demand.
- Meat processors have been unable to find enough workers for the past two years due to the tight labor market and several health concerns throughout the pandemic - in the United States, 59,000 meatpacking workers were infected with Covid-19 at plants run by Tyson and its competitors.
Sales & Operations Planning
- Some companies may feel the wrath of the supply chain disruptions, with the shortage of packaging materials and transportation this holiday season.
- A hot-sauce producer Eli Dicklich stated he does not have enough glass bottles to store and ship out his product and therefore cannot fulfill orders.
- Kemi Tignor - owner of a toy company - stated his products were stuck in a warehouse with no one to transport them, Tignor decided to take matters into his own hands by renting a truck and driving the goods to a distribution center.
- Experts anticipate that due to the surge in online shopping sales, there will consequently, be high levels of product returns this holiday season.
- This is exacerbated by a shopping habit known as bracketing where customers buy multiple colours and/or sizes of one item.
- Although this process is convenient for shoppers, in 2020 returns generated 5.8 billion pounds of waste and 16 million metric tons of carbon emissions - essentially being extremely detrimental to the planet.
- Champagne producers are anticipating hitting record sales this holiday season - proving resilient to new challenges brought forth by the omicron variant.
- Sales are expected to exceed US$6.2 billion, up from roughly $5.5 two years prior.
- Sales for champagne spiked in November, as it was the biggest out-of-stock level among other grocery categories in French supermarkets.
- Typically, Australians spend $60 billion on overseas travel, but due to ongoing travel restrictions in Australia this money is going elsewhere - shopping.
- Shopping centers on Boxing Day are expected to draw crowds, but far more people will be shopping online.
- The average planned spent is $557, up 14% from last year.
- Following the United States, Japan has instated the sale of oil from its reserves to combat rising prices.
- South Korea said it will also release oil from its strategic reserves as part of this global plan - but other countries who have been named e.g., India and China have not acted yet.
Company Focus
- Alibaba seeks to slash carbon emissions by 1.5 gigatons and achieve carbon neutrality across its supply chains by 2030.
- This comes after president Xi Jinping announced last year that China would aim to become carbon neutral by around 2060.
- Toyota said it would suspend production at 5 Japanese factories in January due to supply chain issues chip shortages and lockdown spurred by the pandemic
- However, Toyota assured in its statement this will not impact their annual target to manufacture 9 million vehicles in 2022.
- Nike entered this holiday season with strong inventory levels and were rewarded as they reported sales that surpassed analysts’ expectations - clearly overcoming global supply chain issues.
- Nike stated that all its factories in Vietnam were currently operating smoothly after previously cancelling orders totaling to about 130 million units due to reoccurring lockdowns.
- Toyota announced that remote starting won't be available on key fobs for new vehicles, instead customers will have to use the mobile app.
- Apple is concerned that their employees may be enticed to join Meta - since they are currently on a recruiting spree to develop the Metaverse.
- In a pre-emptive attempt to retain their talent, Apple is offering significant stock bonuses ($50k-$120k) to some top engineers - all coming as a surprise to the employees.
- Oddly enough, Apple - who is also building products for the Metaverse - has ‘poached’ Meta employees in the past, and Meta had to promise significant salary raises to refocus their employees.
Country Focus
- Lego plans to invest more than one billion dollars to build a factory in Ho Chi Minh. The plant is set to begin operation in 2024, generating around 4,000 jobs over the course of 15 years.
- Lego’s long-standing strategy of building production plants close to key markets help alleviate the risk of supply chain issues.
- Bangladesh is outpacing China, Vietnam and Indonesia in terms of growth in apparel exports to the United States, during the period of January to October in 2021.
- Bangladeshi manufacturers have been receiving more orders than usual, due to the drop in manufacturing levels in China from energy shortages, and pandemic-related disruptions in Vietnam and Indonesia.
- Lateral flow test kits are unavailable on the NHS website, stating there were no home kits available as cases in the United Kingdom surged.
- The UK Health Security Agency, attempted to alleviate concerns stating there was no shortage of kits, however, the website and delivery couriers were overwhelmed by the significant increase in orders for kits as we approach the holiday season.
- The recent floods near Vancouver have disrupted transportation of goods around the world, and potatoes in Japan is just one example.
- Consequently, McDonald’s Japan will only sell small-sized French fries until potato imports have stabilised.
- According to Singapore Finance Minister - Lawrence Wong - Singapore must expect a new wave of Covid-19 cases in the new year.
- The Omicron variant is more transmissible but results in more mild symptoms compared to Delta.
- In anticipation of the spread, MOH announced that unvaccinated workers will not be allowed to return to the workplace from January 15th 2022; even with a negative covid test.
Covid & Supply Chain
- Guang Dong province is tightening restrictions after clusters on infections emerged in China’s manufacturing centre.
- The Dalang township in Dong Guan city - the factory hub of the province - has not allowed people to enter, or exit, the region after the detection of eight infections.
- There are global shortages of various commodities across the globe, although some supply chain bottlenecks are slowly easing the onset of the new covid variant is placing pressure on an already strained supply chain.
- Some Chinese provinces are already in lockdown again, and with lunar new year on the horizon greater disruptions are inevitable - which will create a ripple effect faced globally.
- Experts believe we may never return to a pre-pandemic world entirely, we have to adapt global supply chains to be more flexible - but is unlikely we will be able to rectify the current circumstance to a ‘new normal’ until 2023.
- Omicron is testing the resilience of the current supply chain which could cause a resurgence of global disruptions.
- China is strictly enforcing its zero-covid policy that in the past has included mass lockdowns, strict quarantines, and heavily restrictive port policies.
- Widespread natural disasters across the globe are also straining supply chains which could exacerbate the impact of omicron further.
- The Biden administration has promised that American’s will be able to get access to at-home covid tests - with the cost ranging from $15 to $40.
- This comes after Omicron cases are surging across the globe.
- Many countries in Asia, as well as the United Kingdom already offer at-home testing kits for purchase in pharmacies.
- As Omicron cases surge before the holiday season, Singapore has suspended new sales of flight tickets for quarantine-free travel, Australia has a renewed push for vaccinations and Biden has promised 500 million free rapid covid tests to American households.
- Now, there is also a global push to rapidly integrate a booster shot as part of the global covid response.
Miscellaneous
- The Singapore government launched a Heartlands Go Digital campaign in October 2020 in order to strengthen small-business resilience against the pandemic.
- Since then, a total of 13,000 merchants have adopted e-payment platforms.
- Visa is launching an advisory practice to help its clients navigate cryptocurrencies, and facilitate mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other currencies.
- Visa also anticipates guiding its clients through NFT - non-fungible tokens - which are digital assets on the blockchain.
- Just as cryptocurrencies are slowly being discussed more in the mainstream media, alongside it - NFT’s are rapidly gaining traction.
- NFT’s - Non-fungible tokens - a digital asset like a virtual trading card are shaking up the art world.
- Adidas first NFT effort, a collaboration with Bored Ape Yacht Club made $23 million in Ethereum.
- NFT’s are digital assets that hold data and is stored in a blockchain ledger; to prove authenticity and ownership. As an NFT undergoes a transaction a new ‘block’ is created with the information of the new owner.
- A survey with 28,000 internet users in Singapore found that 6.8% of Singaporeans currently own an NFT, while a further 11% plan to own one at some point in the future
- Two in five Singaporean internet users understand the concept of an NFT.
- In Asia, NFT adoption is the highest in the Philippines at 32%, and the lowest in Japan with 2.2%.
- Beyond Asia, Nigeria is expected to have the largest growth of NFT adoption with a jump from 13.7% to 35.3% in 2021.
- The annual meeting of world leaders, billionaires, and business executives - that was set to meet in January - in Davos, Switzerland will be postponed due to the new rise in covid cases globally due to Omicron.
- The meeting focuses on the current and future state of affairs, discussing economic, environmental, political, and social issues.
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